{"id":11785,"date":"2023-11-18T01:46:44","date_gmt":"2023-11-18T01:46:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/18\/argentina-election-showdown-as-libertarian-outsider-looks-to-take-down-establishment-candidate\/"},"modified":"2023-11-18T01:46:44","modified_gmt":"2023-11-18T01:46:44","slug":"argentina-election-showdown-as-libertarian-outsider-looks-to-take-down-establishment-candidate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/18\/argentina-election-showdown-as-libertarian-outsider-looks-to-take-down-establishment-candidate\/","title":{"rendered":"Argentina election showdown as libertarian outsider looks to take down establishment candidate"},"content":{"rendered":"

BUENOS AIRES \u2013<\/strong> Argentina, the majestic name conjures up images of sizzling steaks, velvety red wine, the sprawling wheat-laden Pampas and towering Aconcagua, the highest mountain in the Americas. The nation is riding high on the glory of Messi and last year\u2019s victory in the World Cup, its first since 1986.<\/p>\n

Yet, it is another Argentinian, one arguably more famous than even the great Lionel Messi, whose life and legacy could leave a resounding impact on a tense presidential election unfolding this weekend, more than seven decades after her death.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Peronist economic legacy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Evita Peron, \u2018the voice of Argentina,\u2019 and her husband, Juan Domingo Peron, ruled the country with an iron fist, summoning legions of poor and working-class Argentinians to take the country by storm on command. The \u2018descamisados,\u2019 translated to \u2018shirtless ones,\u2019 were Spanish and Italian immigrants who arrived by the millions to the land of opportunity at the beginning of the 20th century.<\/p>\n

To their supporters, the Perons were heroes who raised the standard of living for Argentinian workers and nationalized the economy to the benefit of the masses and to the detriment of British and American investors. To their detractors, they were dictatorial demagogues who jailed political opponents, cracked down on freedom of speech and the press, and lived to attack the middle class and the dreaded \u2018oligarchy\u2019 they held responsible for all the nation\u2019s ills.<\/p>\n

What is certain is that many of Argentina\u2019s serious and persistent economic problems stem from the decisions made, and the ideology promoted under the Peron administration: chiefly massive spending initiatives, wage and price controls, and nationalizations and expropriations, leading to massive distortions in the economy, and runaway inflation.<\/p>\n

Sergio Massa and Javier Milei offer stark ideological contrast<\/strong><\/p>\n

Today, establishment candidate Sergio Massa and iconoclastic libertarian economist Javier Milei are about as diametrically opposed on politics and policy as could be imagined.<\/p>\n

Massa, the current economy minister, is a smooth and affable chameleon-like figure with a three-decades-long career in politics. Originally part of a line of dissident Peronistas, he ran for president as an independent Peronist candidate in 2015, placing third with 19.5% of the vote.<\/p>\n

Cristina Kirchner: Today\u2019s Peronist incarnation, and Massa\u2019s champion<\/strong><\/p>\n

Today, he counts on the critical backing of Cristina Kirchner, the Peronist Party and its massive political machinery. Walking the streets of downtown Buenos Aires, the bloated bureaucratic state of Argentina is on full display, working overtime to push Massa over the finish line. Every metro station, every building, every billboard, it seems, heralds Massa, proclaiming his slogan, \u2018the Argentina that we\u2019ve been waiting for is coming.\u2019<\/p>\n

Such a slogan might beg the question, \u2018why isn\u2019t it already here?\u2019 Furthermore, how does the current minister of economy currently count on the support of half of the nation in the polls with 40% of Argentinians living in poverty and inflation exceeding 140%?<\/p>\n

Milei\u2019s Pledge: Strangle the bureaucratic state, shut the central bank, and dollarize the economy<\/strong><\/p>\n

Enter libertarian economist Javier Milei, a current congressman who represents the greatest threat in a generation to the nation\u2019s political establishment. With a chainsaw in hand, Milei has pledged a relentless campaign against the \u2018useless\u2019 and \u2018parasitic\u2019 bureaucratic class, which he alleges is choking the life out of the Argentine economy and causing a repetitive inflation death spiral.<\/p>\n

The foundation of his campaign rests on two promises: he will close the Argentine Central Bank, and he will dollarize the economy.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Often incorrectly described as \u2018extreme right\u2019 or \u2018populist,\u2019 Milei is, in fact, a devout libertarian who is particularly inclined to the Austrian school of economics.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Massa: Establishment candidate with standard \u2018red meat\u2019 populist proposals<\/strong><\/p>\n

Massa, seeking to play the role of sensible moderate and seasoned hand, offers a more conventional \u2018meat and potatoes\u2019 approach to governance, under the banner \u2018Medidas para mejorar tu Vida\u2019 or \u2018Measures to improve your life.\u2019 He pledges to cut a variety of taxes while also providing sizable payments and subsidies to Argentinian workers.<\/p>\n

It sounds great, and it may poll well, but it may not be feasible. Argentina\u2019s fiscal house is on life support, and it remains unable to access foreign credit markets. Additionally, its foreign reserves are rapidly depleting.<\/p>\n

Massa defeated Milei in the first round, winning 9.9 million votes, or 36.8%, to Milei\u2019s 8 million votes, or 30%.<\/p>\n

The race is currently locked in a statistical tie, with most recent polls giving a slight edge to Milei. The average of the last five major polls shows Milei with 47.5% over Massa with 45.2%. However, polls in the first round generally overestimated Milei\u2019s support, while underestimating Massa\u2019s.<\/p>\n

If Milei pulls off a win, he will owe a debt to the quick endorsements of Patricia Bullrich and former president Mauricio Macri, who quickly coalesced around Milei following Bullrich\u2019s third place performance in the first round.<\/p>\n

Milei\u2019s fate now rests in the hands of the 23.8% of Argentinians who voted for former Bullrich in the first round, and to a lesser extent, the 6.7% of Argentinians who voted for centrist Juan Schiaretti, the governor of Cordoba. Recent polls have shown that roughly 70-75% of Bullrich voters plan to back Massa in the second round, while Schiaretti voters are split right down the middle.<\/p>\n

Final electoral math<\/strong><\/p>\n

Combining Milei\u2019s 30% in the first round, with roughly 18% (from three-quarters of Bullrich voters), and an additional 3.4% from Schiaretti, would put Milei at just over 51%.<\/p>\n

Sergio Massa, on the other hand, needs to count on record-setting turnout in Peronist strongholds in Buenos Aires city and province (which together constitute 45% of the Argentine electorate), and make an outside appeal to the small but appreciable segment of Bullrich voters who are alienated by Milei\u2019s temperament, and may be persuaded to grudgingly back Massa as a protest vote, or merely stay home.<\/p>\n

It will likely be the closest, and arguably the most consequential, election in a generation.<\/p>\n

For Sunday\u2019s Nov. 19 election, polls will open at 8 a.m. local time and close at 6 p.m. local time (6 a.m. and 4 p.m. EST).<\/p>\n\n

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

BUENOS AIRES \u2013 Argentina, the majestic name conjures up images of sizzling steaks, velvety red wine, the sprawling wheat-laden Pampas and towering Aconcagua, the highest mountain in the Americas. The nation is riding high on the glory of Messi and last year\u2019s victory in the World Cup, its first since 1986. Yet, it is another <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":11786,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-11785","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-politics"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11785\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}