Last weekend\u2019s clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea send troubling signals that their standoff is worsening to a point where lives could be lost, potentially dragging the world\u2019s two most-powerful militaries into open conflict, analysts warn. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe escalatory cycle is worrying,\u201d said Ray Powell, director of SeaLight, a project at the Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation at Stanford University that monitors maritime activities in the South China Sea. <\/p>\n
Analysts described Sunday\u2019s clash, in which Chinese Coast Guard water cannons disabled a Philippine boat, as the most serious of four publicized showdowns this year between the two countries in the waters near Second Thomas Shoal, a feature China claims as its territory but where Philippine marines man an outpost on a grounded ship. <\/p>\n
The Philippine boats were attempting to bring supplies to the badly deteriorating ship, the Sierra Madre, when the Chinese Coast Guard tried to stop them, both countries acknowledge. <\/p>\n
A Chinese Coast Guard ship \u201cdeployed a water cannon against the Philippine supply vessels causing severe damage to (one\u2019s) engines, disabling the vessel and seriously endangering the lives of its crew,\u201d the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said in a statement. <\/p>\n
While no injuries were reported Sunday, the clash, which also included a collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels, shows that serious injuries or deaths are \u201ccertainly possible,\u201d Powell said. <\/p>\n
And because the Philippines, like nearby Japan and South Korea, has a mutual defense treaty with the United States, deaths of Filipinos could trigger US forces to respond. <\/p>\n
US officials have\u00a0repeatedly cited the treaty in public remarks on the South China Sea and the US State Department this week reiterated Washington\u2019s stance following Sunday\u2019s clash. <\/p>\n
The United States \u201cstands with our Philippine allies in the face of these dangerous and unlawful actions,\u201d the statement said. <\/p>\n
China\u2019s Foreign Ministry, however, told Washington it has no standing in the dispute, saying \u201cno third party has the right to intervene.\u201d <\/p>\n
Beijing claims \u201cindisputable sovereignty\u201d over almost all of the South China Sea, including many features\u00a0hundreds of miles from mainland China. The Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan also hold competing claims. <\/p>\n
In 2016, an\u00a0international tribunal\u00a0in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines and concluded that China has no legal basis to claim historic rights to the bulk of the South China Sea. But Beijing has\u00a0ignored the ruling. <\/p>\n
Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ayungin Shoal to the Philippines and Ren\u2019ai Reef to China, sits in the Philippines\u2019 exclusive economic zone. <\/p>\n
Manila grounded the Sierra Madre, a World War II-era former US Navy transport ship, on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 and has manned it with Filipino marines to enforce its claims to the area. But the rusting vessel is falling apart and is badly in need of regular repairs. <\/p>\n
The situation on the shoal largely fell out of headlines while China set up military installations on other contested territories in the South China Sea over much of the past decade. <\/p>\n
And the administration of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte tried to forge new economic ties with Beijing. <\/p>\n
But President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who took office in 2022, has taken a harder line on Chinese territorial claims and strengthened military cooperation with Washington. <\/p>\n
But Beijing has been steadfast in its claim that Manila is illegally occupying the shoal. <\/p>\n
On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning accused the\u00a0Philippines\u00a0of seriously violating China\u2019s sovereignty and endangering the safety of Chinese vessels and personnel. <\/p>\n
But analysts counter that Beijing comes across as the aggressor. <\/p>\n
\u201cChina acts, looks like and is being exposed as a bully,\u201d said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command\u2019s Joint Intelligence Center. <\/p>\n
And Beijing is looking to press its claim, the analysts say. <\/p>\n
In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Koh said it may not even take explosive weapons to trigger the US-Philippine mutual defense treaty. <\/p>\n
\u201cWhen your water cannon attack actually caused physical damage, injury and potentially death, it begs the question about whether it matters whether you use firearms or just the kinetic force of water to qualify as an \u2018armed attack\u2019,\u201d Koh wrote. <\/p>\n
Any death might not have to be intentional, he said. <\/p>\n
\u201cEven if the Chinese try their best to avoid vertical escalation, what if there\u2019s an inadvertent loss of lives, or severe injuries? Will that qualify as armed attack?\u201d Koh asked. <\/p>\n
Koh, Schuster and others said Washington may have let the situation go too far already, emboldening Beijing to keep up the pressure on Manila to back off on its South China Sea claims. <\/p>\n
Eric Sayers, a nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote on X that Washington needs to \u201cescalate\u201d things with Beijing. <\/p>\n
\u201cThey are estimating we won\u2019t because we largely haven\u2019t for the last 13 years since this type of behavior started,\u201d he wrote. <\/p>\n
Schuster said Washington needs more than State Department statements to dissuade China. <\/p>\n
\u201cUnless (the US) moves forces into position, Beijing will see no reason to avoid escalation,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
Those forces could be direct US resupply of the grounded ship, the Sierra Madre, or at least joint escorts on the Philippine resupply missions, Koh said. <\/p>\n
And the resupply missions are vital, said Sayers. <\/p>\n
If Manila can\u2019t get enough supplies to its ship on Second Thomas Shoal, Beijing could be even more assertive, he said. <\/p>\n
And he warned that Washington can\u2019t lose sight of the importance of support for Manila even while \u201cthe rest of the world is burning,\u201d referring to ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza that appear to be dominating the foreign policy space in the US government. <\/p>\n
The US needs to demonstrate that Asia is a priority along with Europe and the Middle East, Sayers said. <\/p>\n
Can Washington \u201cwalk and chew gum like my Euro-centric American friends insist?\u201d is a question that needs a strong answer, he wrote. <\/p>\n\n
Last weekend\u2019s clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea send troubling signals that their standoff is worsening to a point where lives could be lost, potentially dragging the world\u2019s two most-powerful militaries into open conflict, analysts warn. \u201cThe escalatory cycle is worrying,\u201d said Ray Powell, director of SeaLight, a project at <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":12763,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12762","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12762","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12762"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12762\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12762"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12762"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12762"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}