As 2023 draws to a close, Russian President Vladimir Putin is all about a vibe: projecting confidence as he sails to inevitable re-election in March. <\/p>\n
Presidential elections in Russia are perhaps best described a kind of political theater. Putin has no serious rivals; his most prominent opponent, Alexey Navalny, is in a prison 40 miles north of the Arctic Circle; and pliant media portray the sitting president as Russia\u2019s indispensable man. But this spring\u2019s vote is an important public ritual for the Kremlin leader, who stands to secure power until the end of the decade. <\/p>\n
Putin announced his bid in an almost casual fashion.\u00a0Following a \u201cheroes of Russia\u201d ceremony earlier in December, Putin held an on-camera chat with a group of servicemen who had fought in Ukraine \u2013 and who, unsurprisingly, implored the president to run in 2024. <\/p>\n
\u201cOn\u00a0behalf of\u00a0our people, of\u00a0Donbas as\u00a0a\u00a0whole and\u00a0our reunified lands, I\u00a0would like to\u00a0ask you to\u00a0take part in\u00a0this election, said Artyom Zhoga, a representative of the Russian-occupied Donetsk region. \u201cAfter all, there is so much work that needs to\u00a0be done\u2026\u00a0You are our president, and\u00a0we are your team. We need you, and\u00a0Russia needs you.\u201d <\/p>\n
Putin\u2019s aw-shucks reply? <\/p>\n
\u201cI won\u2019t deny that at different times I had different thoughts [about this],\u201d he said. \u201cBut now, you are right, the time has come to make a decision. I will run for the post of president of the Russian Federation.\u201d <\/p>\n
It was a moment clearly scripted to showcase Putin as beloved national leader. And it also pointed to what Putin likes to advertise as a signal achievement of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia\u2019s annexation of four regions of Ukraine in defiance of international law. <\/p>\n
But if Putin is running as a wartime president, he has to massage the facts. Russia does not fully control the Ukrainian regions it claimed in September 2022; the war on the ground has been extremely costly in terms of Russian lives and equipment; and\u00a0Russia\u2019s Black Sea Fleet has taken a serious beating. <\/p>\n
What\u2019s more, the war has quite literally come home to Russia. In recent months, Ukrainian drones have struck deep inside Russian territory. Saturday saw more than 20 killed in one of the deadliest incidents of the war for Russian civilians. While Kyiv maintains some level of deniability, such attacks have had some unsettling psychological effect \u2013 particularly when drones managed to breach the airspace around the Kremlin in May. <\/p>\n
But the biggest blowback from war in Ukraine occurred in June, when Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin launched an insurrection amid a feud with Russia\u2019s top military brass and marched on Moscow. <\/p>\n
Prigozhin\u2019s Wagner paramilitaries stopped short of the Russian capital, in a murky deal apparently brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. But the images of Wagner forces rolling virtually unopposed toward Moscow \u2013 and the downing of Russian military aircraft by the mercenaries \u2013 were a massive blow to Putin\u2019s image as guarantor of Russian domestic stability. <\/p>\n
Within two months of the mutiny, Prigozhin was dead: The mercenary boss died in a still-mysterious plane crash late August. Putin had survived the biggest challenge to his hold on power in over two decades, but the rebellion undermined one of the key pillars of his rule: the president\u2019s aura of invulnerability. <\/p>\n
\u201cMany ultra-patriots were baffled by the mercy initially shown toward Prigozhin and interpreted it as a sign of weakness: both of the state and of Putin himself,\u201d wrote Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya in the aftermath of the crash. \u201cEven in the unlikely event that Prigozhin\u2019s death was a genuine accident, therefore, the Kremlin will undoubtedly do everything it can to make people believe it was an act of retribution. Putin sees this as his personal contribution to the strengthening of Russian statehood.\u201d <\/p>\n
By year\u2019s end, the Kremlin\u2019s PR machine seemed to have swept the whole Prigozhin affair under the rug. In Putin\u2019s marathon, year-in-review press conference, Prigozhin\u2019s name was never uttered, although Putin did concede \u201csetbacks that the\u00a0Defense Ministry should have prevented\u201d when it came to private military companies. <\/p>\n
As always, the annual summing-up was a master class in spin, with Putin confidently presenting the message that Russia was again on the front foot and reeling off\u00a0statistics to bolster his point. The\u00a0economy, he said, was returning to GDP growth, bouncing back from 2.1% decline the previous year, and Russia\u2019s industrial output is growing. The country\u2019s unemployment rate, he boasted,\u00a0had dropped to\u00a0a\u00a0historic low, 2.9%. <\/p>\n
Russia has indeed weathered sanctions and its economy is on a war footing: According to the US Treasury Department, defense spending has been the main driver of economic growth. And that looks set to continue, as Putin has promised to spend whatever it takes to prosecute his war on Ukraine. <\/p>\n
And the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine has given Putin another opportunity to project self-confidence. Ukraine\u2019s much-vaunted counter-offensive failed to yield any breakthrough, and the Biden administration\u2019s request for more than $60 billion in aid for Ukraine has stalled in Congress over Republican demands on border security and immigration policy. Hungary blocked the latest proposed European Union aid deal for Ukraine. <\/p>\n
Putin clearly wants the world \u2013 as well as his electorate \u2013 to believe that he is winning, and he is counting on support for Ukraine to waver. Asked in his press conference when there will be peace in Ukraine, Putin offered the same open-ended formula he used to justify the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. <\/p>\n
\u201cThere will be peace when we achieve our goals, which you have mentioned,\u201d he said. \u201cNow let\u2019s return to\u00a0these goals\u00a0\u2013 they have not changed. I\u00a0would like to\u00a0remind you how we formulated them: denazification, demilitarization, and\u00a0a\u00a0neutral status for\u00a0Ukraine.\u201d <\/p>\n
On Friday, the Russian military reminded the world what \u201cdenazification\u201d means in practice, showering Ukrainian cities with the largest missile and drone attack since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. <\/p>\n
The relentless attacks on Ukrainian civilians, however, may have an unintended effect.\u00a0Following the latest wave of strikes, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and France all called for continued support\u00a0for\u00a0Ukraine. What remains to be seen in 2024 is how creative Ukraine\u2019s allies can be in delivering on those pledges. <\/p>\n\n
As 2023 draws to a close, Russian President Vladimir Putin is all about a vibe: projecting confidence as he sails to inevitable re-election in March. Presidential elections in Russia are perhaps best described a kind of political theater. Putin has no serious rivals; his most prominent opponent, Alexey Navalny, is in a prison 40 miles <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":13437,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-13436","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13436"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13436\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}