{"id":15382,"date":"2024-02-11T12:46:38","date_gmt":"2024-02-11T12:46:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/11\/outmanned-and-outgunned-ukraines-new-army-chief-faces-big-challenges-in-taking-the-fight-to-russia\/"},"modified":"2024-02-11T12:46:38","modified_gmt":"2024-02-11T12:46:38","slug":"outmanned-and-outgunned-ukraines-new-army-chief-faces-big-challenges-in-taking-the-fight-to-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/11\/outmanned-and-outgunned-ukraines-new-army-chief-faces-big-challenges-in-taking-the-fight-to-russia\/","title":{"rendered":"Outmanned and outgunned: Ukraine\u2019s new army chief faces big challenges in taking the fight to Russia"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

The worst kept secret in Kyiv has finally been confirmed: the man who led Ukraine\u2019s armed forces for two years is out of his job. <\/p>\n

President Volodymyr Zelensky\u00a0replaced\u00a0General\u00a0\ufeffValerii\u00a0Zaluzhnyi on Thursday, after\u00a010\u00a0days of rumor and speculation \u2013 and months of a fraying relationship. <\/p>\n

The announcement comes at a critical moment in the\u00a0war with Russia\u00a0and is likely to herald a change in Ukrainian strategy. But it\ufeff\u00a0is\u00a0<\/strong>also hazardous. <\/p>\n

The removal of Zaluzhnyi from his position as\u00a0commander-in-chief\u00a0comes as Ukrainian units are on the backfoot in several parts of the long\u00a0front line, especially in\u00a0the\u00a0eastern\u00a0Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. They are desperately short of shells and other munitions and running short of experienced soldiers. <\/p>\n

The Russian war machine is running at full tilt and has a much larger pool of men\u00a0to draw\u00a0from than Ukraine\u00a0to replenish its ranks. Russia is\u00a0skirting international sanctions\u00a0and its oil revenues help fund plentiful war spending. <\/p>\n

Zelensky said he and Zaluzhnyi had a \u201cfrank discussion about what needs to be changed in the army. Urgent changes.\u201d He added that \u201cthe feeling of stagnation in the southern areas and the difficulties in the fighting in Donetsk region have affected the public mood.\u201d <\/p>\n

The public mood is indeed gloomier. According to a\u00a0recent survey\u00a0in Ukraine, those who believe that events are going in the wrong direction\u00a0increased from\u00a016% in\u00a0May 2022 to\u00a033%\u00a0in\u00a0December 2023. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s unlikely that Zaluzhnyi\u2019s replacement, General\u00a0Oleksandr\u00a0Syrskyi, will offer a radical change of style but he is thought to be closer to Zelensky. <\/p>\n

Syrskyi has been in command of land forces since the Russian invasion but was criticized for extending the defense of Bakhmut at great human cost. Subordinates have described him as lacking empathy and some soldiers took to calling him \u201cGeneral 200\u201d (200 is the military code for killed-in-action.) <\/p>\n

\u201cSyrskyi is seen a consensus choice,\u201d says Matthew Schmidt, director of the International Affairs program at the University of New Haven\u00a0\ufeffin Connecticut. <\/p>\n

\u201cSome say he\u2019s too Soviet, meaning unimaginative but capable, some say he doesn\u2019t take uncomfortable truths well \u2013 something Zaluzhnyi did \u2013 and some say he\u2019s the best of the worst kind of general.\u201d <\/p>\n

Schmidt says\u00a0there are few options right now.\u00a0<\/strong>\u201cMaybe it\u2019s a phase in the war where a safe choice is the right move.\u201d <\/p>\n

Syrskyi\u2019s most urgent task will be to stabilize the front lines. Also in his inbox: how to replenish the depleted ranks of some of Ukraine\u2019s best brigades and how to expedite the arrival of\u00a0\ufeffWestern\u00a0munitions at the front lines\u00a0\u2013\u00a0<\/strong>and how to cope until that happens. <\/p>\n

Other priorities include: what stress to place on longer-range strikes against Russian infrastructure such as fuel depots and military bases, integrating\u00a0F-16\u00a0combat aircraft into battle plans, and the rapid development of the next generation of unmanned systems. <\/p>\n

Shortages on the frontlines<\/h2>\n

Amid persistent Russian attacks around Avdiivka and Kupyansk, \u201cthe first priority is make sure you can hold the current line of contact,\u201d\u00a0Schmidt says. <\/p>\n

\u201cPutin\u2019s tactical weakness doesn\u2019t mean he can\u2019t kill thousands of his soldiers in an attempt to take significant chunks of territory. Any new chief of staff has to respect that risk,\u201d\u00a0he adds. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s better than no shells,\u201d one soldier said. <\/p>\n

With the Biden administration\u2019s package of $61 billion in military aid blocked in Congress, the US has been sending smaller packages for several months, and the slowdown has already begun affecting the Ukrainian military\u2019s planning and operations, according to US officials. <\/p>\n

Schmidt says \u201cthe immediate priority is to get enough artillery shells to the front to keep the Russians from exploiting the pause in US aid. Each artillery shell that\u2019s available to fire equates to needing fewer infantry to hold the line.\u201d <\/p>\n

Unclogging the pipeline of US military aid and boosting European production of munitions are critical priorities if Ukraine is to move from hanging on to fighting back. The EU has acknowledged it will\u00a0fall far short\u00a0of its goal of producing one million artillery shells for Ukraine in the year to March, estimating the number will be roughly half of that. <\/p>\n

This week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro\u00a0Kuleba said: \u201cIf you ask a soldier at the front what he needs most right now, he will say shells. This answer was the same yesterday, a month ago, six months ago and a year ago.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cThe main goal is to ensure that the shell shortage never turns into a shell famine,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n

Outnumbered<\/h2>\n

Ukraine\u2019s more professional units are exhausted by two years of non-stop combat, their ranks thinned by casualties. Ukraine does not publish figures, but US officials estimate that as many as 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and nearly twice that number injured. <\/p>\n

The scale and speed of additional mobilization in Ukraine is a thorny political question, and one source of\u00a0the rift between Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, who said the military needed another half-million soldiers and criticized \u201cgaps in our legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities.\u201d <\/p>\n

A bill passing through the Ukrainian parliament would lower the minimum age for the draft to 25 from 27 (a provision Zelensky did not sign last year) and introduce harsh punishments for people who flout mobilization rules. Citizens of military age would be obliged to carry military registration documents with them. <\/p>\n

A more ambitious version of the bill was withdrawn amid public criticism, and it remains to be seen how effective the new measure is in addressing serious shortfalls. Zelensky is concerned about the government\u2019s ability to pay for a larger standing army (frontline pay is six times the average Ukrainian wage\u00a0at $3000 per month) and about the political risk. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe population is still committed to the fight, we see that in opinion surveys, but they\u2019re exhausted,\u201d Schmidt says. <\/p>\n

Unmanned systems<\/h2>\n

Zaluzhnyi has persistently argued that given Russia\u2019s higher pool of manpower and armor, Ukraine needs a step-change in its battlefield technology: more sophisticated drones and other unmanned systems would provide real-time intelligence and accurate targeting information, for example. <\/p>\n

In his\u00a0recent essay\u00a0Zaluzhnyi suggested that turbo-charging such investment, as well as embracing cyber technology, could produce results within five months. <\/p>\n

Time is of the essence. The Russian military continues to make mistakes, but it is learning and adapting, especially in the exploitation of attack and reconnaissance drones and electronic warfare. <\/p>\n

The Russian military has also exploited glide technology to deliver aerial bombs more accurately, one reason that the Ukrainian offensive in the south faltered last summer. <\/p>\n

Put simply, Ukraine needs to widen the technological gap, as Zelensky acknowledged in his address announcing the leadership shake-up. Its rapidly expanding domestic drone industry will be critical in that effort and is already showing results. <\/p>\n

First person, or\u00a0\u2018FPV\u2019 drones deployed in the Avdiivka area have had a devastating effect on Russian attempts to encircle the town, inflicting heavy losses\u00a0on\u00a0tanks and munitions vehicles. Lt. Gen. Serhii Naiev, Commander of Ukraine\u2019s Joint Forces, says they are\u00a0<\/strong>a\u00a0\u201cmuch cheaper but no less effective means of destroying enemy equipment and manpower than anti-tank missile systems and artillery ammunition.\u201d <\/p>\n

The introduction of\u00a0F-16s, expected at the earliest this spring, should erode the Russians\u2019 edge in the skies, but Zaluzhnyi\u2019s stated goal of achieving absolute air superiority to enable Ukraine to go on the offensive seems a distant prospect. Meshing the new combat planes into an overall battle strategy will be a critical task for Syrskyi. <\/p>\n

One area where the Ukrainians have been successful in recent months is in extending their attacks against Russian military infrastructure, transport links and refineries, as far away as St Petersburg and the Russian Far East. <\/p>\n

The\u00a0recent drone or UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle)\u00a0strike on a refinery in Volgograd was the latest win in a series of targeted strikes. <\/p>\n

More significant still, and despite having virtually no navy of its own, the special operations run by Budanov and the Security Service (SBU) have \u201callowed Ukraine to bottle up the Russian Black Sea Fleet in port\u2026while also destroying multiple air-defense and ammunition sites in Crimea,\u201d according to the US Naval Institute. <\/p>\n

Ukraine has pioneered the development of maritime drones to take out several of the Black Sea Fleet\u2019s warships. Aerial drones, missiles and sabotage operations have at least disrupted Russian logistics. <\/p>\n

\u201cThey need to interdict Russia supply lines in Ukraine and make the Russian public feel the war in their daily lives. If Putin has\u00a0to\u00a0move resources to protect his rear, that means less to go on the attack with,\u201d in Schmidt\u2019s view. <\/p>\n

Big shoes to fill<\/h2>\n

Over the past year, a sense of optimism among Ukraine\u2019s allies and frontline commanders alike has given way to a darker mood, as Zelensky has acknowledged. Zaluzhnyi\u2019s gloomy assessment in December was that \u201cThere will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,\u201d a comment that did not endear him to the\u00a0\ufeffpresidency. <\/p>\n

Exhaustion at home, squabbles among allies\u00a0(the EU versus Hungary)\u00a0<\/strong>and the paralysis in Congress have added to what is a bleak outlook.\u00a0Meanwhile, Russian President\u00a0Vladimir Putin has been buoyed by the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House. <\/p>\n

Filling Zaluzhnyi\u2019s shoes won\u2019t be easy. <\/p>\n

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general who has visited Ukraine and met with senior officials, describes him as a \u201ccharismatic and popular military leader who anticipated and prepared in the weeks before the Russian large-scale invasion.\u201d <\/p>\n

Syrskyi has his own achievements, especially the defense of Kyiv in the early days and the lightning offensive that recovered swathes of Kharkiv in September 2022. <\/p>\n

But the conflict has\u00a0changed\u00a0vastly\u00a0since then. <\/p>\n

In the immediate future, the Ukrainian leadership must show unity after what has been a messy changeover. Myhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the office of the President, said that \u201cduring a war, political competition, especially at the level of the army, generals, and politicians, doesn\u2019t look so good.\u201d <\/p>\n

Instilling a new sense of purpose is all the more important as Ukraine faces a window of vulnerability. <\/p>\n

As Matthew Schmidt puts it,\u00a0Putin \u201ccan throw bodies at the enemy, using Russian quantity to overcome Ukrainian quality. It\u2019s a very Stalinist approach to the battlefield, and it\u2019s built into Russian strategic culture.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The worst kept secret in Kyiv has finally been confirmed: the man who led Ukraine\u2019s armed forces for two years is out of his job. President Volodymyr Zelensky\u00a0replaced\u00a0General\u00a0\ufeffValerii\u00a0Zaluzhnyi on Thursday, after\u00a010\u00a0days of rumor and speculation \u2013 and months of a fraying relationship. The announcement comes at a critical moment in the\u00a0war with Russia\u00a0and is likely <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":15383,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-15382","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15382\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}