{"id":15386,"date":"2024-02-11T12:46:39","date_gmt":"2024-02-11T12:46:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/11\/critical-atlantic-ocean-current-system-is-showing-early-signs-of-collapse-prompting-warning-from-scientists\/"},"modified":"2024-02-11T12:46:39","modified_gmt":"2024-02-11T12:46:39","slug":"critical-atlantic-ocean-current-system-is-showing-early-signs-of-collapse-prompting-warning-from-scientists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/11\/critical-atlantic-ocean-current-system-is-showing-early-signs-of-collapse-prompting-warning-from-scientists\/","title":{"rendered":"Critical Atlantic Ocean current system is showing early signs of collapse, prompting warning from scientists"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A crucial system of ocean currents may already be on course to collapse, according to a new report, with alarming implications for sea level rise and global weather \u2014\u00a0leading temperatures to plunge dramatically in some regions and rise in others. <\/p>\n

Using exceptionally complex and expensive computing systems, scientists found a new way to detect an early warning signal for the collapse of these currents, according to the study published Friday in the journal Science Advances. And as the planet warms, there are already indications it is heading in this direction. <\/p>\n

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (the AMOC) \u2014 of which the Gulf Stream is part \u2014 works like a giant global conveyor belt, taking warm water from the tropics toward the far <\/strong>North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier and sinks deep into the ocean, before spreading southward. <\/p>\n

The currents carry heat and nutrients to different areas of the globe and play a vital role in keeping the climate of large parts of the Northern Hemisphere relatively mild. <\/p>\n

For decades, scientists have been sounding the alarm on the circulation\u2019s stability as climate change warms the ocean and melts ice, disrupting the balance of heat and salt that determines the currents\u2019 strength. <\/p>\n

While many scientists believe the AMOC will slow under climate change, and could even grind to a halt, there remains huge uncertainty over when and how fast this could happen. The AMOC has only been monitored continuously since 2004. <\/p>\n

Scientists do know \u2014 from building a picture of the past using things like ice cores and ocean sediments \u2014 the AMOC shut down more than 12,000 years ago following rapid glacier melt. <\/p>\n

Now they are scrambling to work out if it could happen again. <\/p>\n

This new study provides an \u201cimportant breakthrough,\u201d said Ren\u00e9 van Westen, a marine and atmospheric researcher at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands and study co-author. <\/p>\n

The scientists used a supercomputer to run complex climate models over a period of three months, simulating a gradual increase of freshwater to the AMOC \u2014 representing\u00a0ice melt as well as rainfall and river runoff, which can dilute the ocean\u2019s salinity and weaken the currents. <\/p>\n

As they slowly increased the freshwater in the model, they saw the AMOC gradually weaken until it abruptly collapsed. It\u2019s the first time a collapse has been detectable using these complex models, representing \u201cbad news for the climate system and humanity,\u201d the report says. <\/p>\n

\u201cBut we can at least say that we are heading in the direction of the tipping point under climate change,\u201d van Westen said. <\/p>\n

The impacts of the AMOC\u2019s collapse could be catastrophic. Some parts of Europe might see temperatures plunge by up to 30 degrees Celsius over a century, the study finds, leading to a completely different climate over the course of just a decade or two. <\/p>\n

\u201cNo realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes,\u201d the study authors write. <\/p>\n

Countries in the Southern Hemisphere, on the other hand, could see increased warming, while the Amazon\u2019s wet and dry seasons could flip, causing serious disruption to the ecosystem. <\/p>\n

The AMOC\u2019s collapse could also cause sea levels to surge by around 1 meter (3.3 feet), van Westen said. <\/p>\n

Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany, who was not involved with the study, said it was \u201ca major advance in AMOC stability science.\u201d <\/p>\n

Previous studies finding the AMOC\u2019s tipping point used much simpler models, he said, giving hope to some scientists that it might not be found under more complex models. <\/p>\n

This study crushes those hopes, Rahmstorf said. <\/p>\n

Joel Hirschi, associate head of marine systems modeling at the National Oceanography Centre in the UK, said the study was the first to use complex climate models to show the AMOC can flip from \u201con\u201d to \u201coff\u201d in response to\u00a0relatively small amounts of freshwater entering the ocean. <\/p>\n

But there are reasons to be cautious, he added. Even though the study used a complex model, it still has a low resolution, he said, meaning there could be limitations in representing some parts of the currents. <\/p>\n

This study adds to the growing body of evidence that the AMOC may be approaching a tipping point \u2014 and that it could even be close. <\/p>\n

A 2021 study found that the AMOC was weaker\u00a0than any other time in the past 1,000 years. And a particularly alarming \u2014 and somewhat controversial \u2014 report published in July last year, concluded that the AMOC could be on course to collapse potentially as early as 2025. <\/p>\n

Yet huge uncertainties remain. Jeffrey Kargel, senior scientist at the Planetary Science Institute in Arizona, said he suspected the theory of a potentially imminent shutdown of the AMOC \u201cwill remain somewhat controversial until, one year, we know that it is happening.\u201d <\/p>\n

He likened its potential collapse to the \u201cwild gyrations of a stock market that precede a major crash\u201d \u2014 it\u2019s nearly impossible to unpick which changes are reversible, and which are a precursor to a disaster. <\/p>\n

Modern data shows the AMOC\u2019s strength fluctuates, but there is no observed evidence yet of a decline, Hirschi said.\u00a0\u201cWhether abrupt changes in the AMOC similar to those seen in the past will occur as our climate continues to warm is an important open question.\u201d <\/p>\n

This study is a piece of that puzzle, Rahmstorf said. \u201c(It) adds significantly to the rising concern about an AMOC collapse in the not too distant future,\u201d he said. \u201cWe will ignore this risk at our peril.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A crucial system of ocean currents may already be on course to collapse, according to a new report, with alarming implications for sea level rise and global weather \u2014\u00a0leading temperatures to plunge dramatically in some regions and rise in others. Using exceptionally complex and expensive computing systems, scientists found a new way to detect an <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":15387,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-15386","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15386"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15386\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15386"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}