{"id":15722,"date":"2024-02-18T12:56:42","date_gmt":"2024-02-18T12:56:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/18\/kim-jong-un-has-broken-with-decades-of-north-korean-policy-does-it-mean-hes-planning-for-war\/"},"modified":"2024-02-18T12:56:42","modified_gmt":"2024-02-18T12:56:42","slug":"kim-jong-un-has-broken-with-decades-of-north-korean-policy-does-it-mean-hes-planning-for-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/18\/kim-jong-un-has-broken-with-decades-of-north-korean-policy-does-it-mean-hes-planning-for-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Kim Jong Un has broken with decades of North Korean policy \u2013 does it mean he\u2019s planning for war?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

As war in Ukraine grinds toward its third year and fighting in Gaza inflames a broader crisis across the Middle East, global security observers are keeping a close watch on another part of the world \u2013 North Korea, where Kim Jong Un\u2019s latest provocations are raising questions about his military intentions. <\/p>\n

In recent weeks, the leader has brushed aside decades of his country\u2019s policy toward South Korea \u2013 now proclaiming that North Korea would no longer seek reconciliation and reunification with the South and calling for it to be classified as their \u201cpermanent enemy.\u201d <\/p>\n

North Korea \u201cdoes not want war, but will not avoid it,\u201d Kim declared at a political gathering last month, according to state outlet KCNA. <\/p>\n

If war came, the country\u2019s goal would be \u201coccupying, suppressing and reclaiming the Republic of Korea and subjugating it into the territory of the republic,\u201d he said, referring to South Korea by its official name. <\/p>\n

The sweeping policy shift in the nuclear-capable country has come alongside a volley of weapons tests, the shelling of a maritime buffer zone, and calls from Kim for North Korea to accelerate war preparations in response to \u201cconfrontation moves\u201d by the US. <\/p>\n

Together the developments are drawing international concern \u2013 and debate among seasoned observers \u2013 about the intentions of the leader at the heart of the country\u2019s secretive regime. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang\u2019s \u2018provocations,\u2019\u201d prominent experts Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker wrote in North Korea-focused publication 38 North last month. Kim, they suggest, has \u201cmade a strategic decision to go to war.\u201d <\/p>\n

Many other observers disagree \u2013 arguing that the 40-year-old leader knows well that any major military move against South Korea and its ally the United States could hasten the demise of his own regime. <\/p>\n

But those observers too are bracing for a year of ramped up aggression \u2013 and express concern about the risk of North Korea\u2019s escalated hostilities leading to some kind of military engagement on the Korean Peninsula, raising the risk, however remote, of nuclear conflict. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe situation on the Korean Peninsula has entered a very critical phase,\u201d said Eul-Chul Lim, director of the North Korea Research Center at Kyungnam University\u2019s Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) in Seoul. <\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the high level of mutual tension, there is a possibility of accidental conflict due to misunderstandings, misjudgments, and misperceptions\u201d \u2013 even if Kim likely sees \u201clittle political or economic benefit\u201d in war, he added. <\/p>\n

Kim is known for his provocations and has signaled in recent years a coming policy shift on South Korea. <\/p>\n

But experts say the changes now are likely driven by Kim\u2019s mounting concerns as South Korea and the United States ramp up military drills and coordination \u2013 and his newfound confidence in a shifting geopolitical climate that has drawn Pyongyang closer to a key partner, Russia. <\/p>\n

The changes also coincide with an election year in the US, where President Joe Biden seeks a second term while managing multiple global crises. Kim is likely watching carefully \u2013 and may be keen to see him replaced by predecessor and candidate Donald Trump. <\/p>\n

A major shift<\/h2>\n

For decades, governments on both sides of the divided Korean Peninsula have maintained they were members of the same family with the ultimate goal of peacefully reunifying. The two sides have been cut off from each other since 1953, when an armistice ended the Korean War, and remain technically at war. <\/p>\n

\u201c(Kim Jong Un) is now saying that South Korea is no longer viewed as another Korea. South Korea is viewed as a completely foreign power,\u201d said Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom, who focuses on the Korean Peninsula. <\/p>\n

Reclassifying South Korea as an enemy state, experts say, allows Kim to justify the continued build-up of his nuclear and missile arsenal \u2013 and hold it over Seoul, which has adopted a harder line against Pyongyang under President Yoon Suk Yeol. <\/p>\n

Despite heavy international sanctions, Kim has continued to build that arsenal in recent years, focused on developing weapons able to strike not just South Korea and Japan but the US territory of Guam and the American mainland \u2013 capabilities he sees as essential to deterring a potential attack and ensuring the survival of his regime. <\/p>\n

Since 2022 Kim has reiterated that the principle point of his nuclear arsenal is \u201cto deter war,\u201d but also raised the potential for nuclear weapons to be used to counter efforts to violate the North\u2019s \u201cfundamental interests.\u201d <\/p>\n

He\u2019s also become increasingly alarmed by strengthened ties between the US and South Korea. <\/p>\n

Yoon and Biden have sharpened their countries\u2019 deterrence plans and coordination in the face of North Korea\u2019s threats and weapons development. That\u2019s included expanding joint drills in the region and security cooperation, including with Japan \u2013 all of which Kim\u00a0sees as a threat to his regime. <\/p>\n

The \u201cprogress\u201d by South Korea and the United States on deterrence \u201cis one of the major reasons that Kim Jong Un feels very frustrated,\u201d according to Won Gon Park, a professor in the department of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. <\/p>\n

Kim has been explicit about these concerns. Last month he said that \u201cinstability of the regional situation is soaring due to the US-led escalation of military tensions,\u201d and that while Pyongyang doesn\u2019t want war the \u201cdanger\u201d of its outbreak \u201chas considerably aggravated,\u201d according to KCNA. <\/p>\n

Kim\u2019s policy shift on South Korea may also be linked to a view that negotiations with the US are no longer a viable path to meet goals of being recognized as a nuclear state and receiving sanctions relief. <\/p>\n

Pyongyang has rebuffed outreach from Washington in the wake of a failed 2019 summit between Kim and then-US President Trump, according to the US. <\/p>\n

The North Korean leader may also see scrapping a policy of reunification not as a step toward war but a necessary defense, some say. <\/p>\n

Kim has indicated as much in his own public statements, saying last month the country is cultivating its \u201cstrength\u201d not for a \u201cpreemptive attack\u201d to realize reunification by force, but instead for \u201clegitimate self-defense.\u201d <\/p>\n

Kim is \u201cparticularly wary of (North Korea\u2019s) absorption by the South (and) believes that it is impossible to establish normal relations with the South without developing the North Korean economy,\u201d according to IFES\u2019s Lim, pointing to the country\u2019s economic weakness relative to the South. <\/p>\n

Instead of \u201cempty reunification talk,\u201d Kim wants to focus resources on building his arsenal and economy \u2013 and working with new partners for economic benefit, he added. <\/p>\n

If anything, some analysts believe, North Korea\u2019s public statements signal that North Korea is abandoning its reunification policy in pursuit of peace on the peninsula. <\/p>\n

Kim\u2019s \u201cNo. 1 priority is the sustainment of his regime,\u201d a senior defense official said. \u201cThat\u2019s not a shift \u2014 that\u2019s been a strategic priority of his entire family since the Korean War.\u201d <\/p>\n

An \u2018emboldened\u2019 Kim<\/h2>\n

The North Korean leader may also feel more confident about his arsenal and his options as he watches a shifting global landscape. <\/p>\n

From his view, experts say, Kim sees a US whose waning influence is being tested in conflicts from Ukraine to the Middle East \u2013 and an ascendant China surrounded by a burgeoning coalition of countries, including Russia and Iran, all at odds with the West. <\/p>\n

\u201cKim Jong Un has been emboldened \u2026 not simply by the divide between the US and China and the US and Russia, but more importantly, a fragmented world where US leadership has been weakened considerably and there are no meaningful consequences for aggression,\u201d said Rachel Minyoung Lee, a nonresident fellow with the 38 North Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington. <\/p>\n

His policy shift on South Korea is part of a \u201cbroader, fundamental shift in foreign policy, namely giving up normalization of relations with the US through denuclearization and pivoting to China and Russia,\u201d she said. <\/p>\n

That pivot got a major boost in September, when Vladimir Putin welcomed the North Korean leader to Russia for a rare overseas trip \u2013 a meeting Western officials say was fueled by the Russian President\u2019s need to bolster dwindling munitions in his war on Ukraine. <\/p>\n

Russia has since fired North Korean-supplied short-range ballistic missiles in its war, according to the White House, which called it a \u201cconcerning escalation\u201d of Pyongyang\u2019s support. Analysts have speculated that Russia has reciprocated with aid for North Korea\u2019s spy satellite program. More cooperation with Moscow could also potentially help Kim address chronic food and fuel shortages and build North Korea\u2019s economy. <\/p>\n

China, by far North Korea\u2019s most important economic lifeline, remains wary of any moves from Pyongyang that could destabilize or draw more US forces to the region. <\/p>\n

However, amid rising friction with Washington, Beijing has in recent years blocked US-backed efforts in the United Nations Security Council to censure North Korea, and will look to stay engaged with Pyongyang, especially as it draws closer to Moscow. <\/p>\n

Kim\u2019s regime may also see the expanding conflict in the Middle East as an opportunity to criticize the West and garner income, according to Howell at Oxford, pointing to how Iran has long played the role of middleman for North Korea to supply weapons to militant groups like Hamas. <\/p>\n

\u201c(One) thing that\u2019s changed is North Korea\u2019s ability to exploit the broader global crises to its advantage,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

What\u2019s next?<\/h2>\n

Experts warn that North Korea\u2019s ratcheting up of tensions is likely to continue this year, as Washington continues to boost drills and collaboration with its regional partners to deter Kim. <\/p>\n

How to dial down those tensions is open to debate, with some policy experts stressing that this show of strength remains the best deterrence for North Korean aggression. <\/p>\n

Others argue that the coalition needs to find ways to minimize the potential for Kim to feel his regime is threatened by their activities \u2013 and prevent Pyongyang from drawing closer to Moscow and Beijing as a result. <\/p>\n

\u201cKim Jong Un is wary of a full-scale provocation by the South Korean military disguised as a military exercise and has vowed to occupy South Korean territory without hesitation,\u201d said Lim in Seoul. <\/p>\n

\u201cTherefore, if the US, South Korea, and Japan fail to de-escalate the threat from North Korea during joint military exercises, a military conflict could occur on the Korean Peninsula,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Lee in Washington agreed \u201can emboldened Kim Jong Un may be more inclined to take military action against what he perceives to be the slightest threat to North Korea, such as joint US-South Korea military exercises.\u201d <\/p>\n

In the months ahead, Kim will also be closely watching the upcoming US presidential elections as Trump seeks to win back office. <\/p>\n

It\u2019s unclear whether Kim would engage with the former president again were he to be reelected. But experts say Kim is likely hopeful that a newly elected Trump, who has long been dismissive of overseas alliances,\u00a0would roll back America\u2019s security cooperation with South Korea and Japan \u2013 and the North Korean leader could even seek to impact election dynamics with an aggressive move. <\/p>\n

One potential could be for Kim to launch Pyongyang\u2019s seventh nuclear test, in what would be the first since 2017, according to Park of Ewha Womans University. <\/p>\n

\u201cIf North Korea conducts a seventh nuclear test it means a total failure of the Biden administration and gives a very good attack point for Trump (to call Biden) ineffective in dealing with the North Korean leader,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Further ahead, despite the sweeping changes Kim has now made to his country\u2019s policy toward South Korea, if the North Korean leader sees an opening to advance his larger goals by sitting back down with the South and the US, he could change tack \u201canytime\u201d \u2013 to reverse these changes, Park added. <\/p>\n

\u201cThis is the kind of behavior (one can expect from) North Korea,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n

Correction: A previous version of this story misstated the location of Kyungnam University\u2019s Institute for Far Eastern Studies.<\/p>\n\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As war in Ukraine grinds toward its third year and fighting in Gaza inflames a broader crisis across the Middle East, global security observers are keeping a close watch on another part of the world \u2013 North Korea, where Kim Jong Un\u2019s latest provocations are raising questions about his military intentions. In recent weeks, the <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":15723,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-15722","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15722"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15722\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15723"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}