{"id":15758,"date":"2024-02-19T12:46:23","date_gmt":"2024-02-19T12:46:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/19\/once-banned-from-the-us-this-fiery-ex-army-general-is-poised-to-lead-indonesia-what-to-expect\/"},"modified":"2024-02-19T12:46:23","modified_gmt":"2024-02-19T12:46:23","slug":"once-banned-from-the-us-this-fiery-ex-army-general-is-poised-to-lead-indonesia-what-to-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/19\/once-banned-from-the-us-this-fiery-ex-army-general-is-poised-to-lead-indonesia-what-to-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"Once banned from the US, this fiery ex-army general is poised to lead Indonesia. What to expect"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

He hadn\u2019t yet won enough votes to clinch Indonesia\u2019s presidential election, but with the confidence of a man poised to take power of one of the world\u2019s largest democracies, Prabowo Subianto gave a press conference, half-naked, from his private swimming pool on the outskirts of Jakarta. <\/p>\n

At 72, the ex-army general, once banned from the United States over alleged human rights violations, might be decades older than his competitors \u2013 both former governors in their 50s \u2013 but he says he is more than ready to lead. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe most important objective of democracy is giving people the leaders and representatives they want,\u201d Prabowo told reporters from his pool. \u201cI hope all parties understand the greater goal.\u201d <\/p>\n

Official results will be announced in March. But according to early figures, which historically have been\u00a0accurate, Prabowo garnered an enormous 60%\u00a0of the vote, avoiding a\u00a0run-off in June. <\/p>\n

He lost presidential elections\u00a0twice to the wildly popular Joko Widodo, also known as Jokowi, sparking deadly riots in 2019 after he challenged the results. Now he is poised to become Indonesia\u2019s next leader. <\/p>\n

But speculation is rife about what a famously short-tempered military man will do when he ascends to office and what it will mean for the country\u2019s hard-won democracy. <\/p>\n

\u201cPrabowo has worked really hard to whitewash his egregious past and reinvent himself with a softer, cuddlier image but it\u2019s still too early to tell what kind of president he will be,\u201d said Zachary Abuza, a professor in Southeast Asian politics and security issues at the National War College in Washington, DC. <\/p>\n

\u201cJokowi\u2019s focus had been\u00a0on the economy. He\u00a0believed that economic growth and development would resolve all conflicts,\u201d Abuza added. <\/p>\n

\u201cI see Prabowo looking at problems through a military lens. Safeguarding sovereignty and national security will be his priorities.\u201d <\/p>\n

More recently, Prabowo has presented himself as a loyal Jokowi ally, serving as his defense minister for the past five years. Much of his 2024 election campaign focused on continuing the outgoing president\u2019s pet projects and policies. <\/p>\n

But the two could not be more different, political watchers say. <\/p>\n

When Widodo won the election in 2014, he drew comparisons with Barack Obama and rode in on a platform of change \u2013 becoming the first elected president in Indonesia\u2019s history with no ties to the\u00a0political or military elite. <\/p>\n

Experts say Prabowo, known for his fiery speeches, military background and combative past will make for a very different kind of president. <\/p>\n

He is considerably more outspoken and confrontational than Widodo, who is known for his calm and conciliatory demeanor, they add. <\/p>\n

\u201cPrabowo had a reputation in the military for fighting and for his short temper,\u201d said Tom Pepinsky, professor of government and director of the Southeast Asia Program at Cornell University. \u201cWhile he might not have the same crassness or brashness of politicians like Rodrigo Duterte, Javier Milei or Trump, his politics replace concern for law and order with a preference for order over the law.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cPrabowo does have temper issues,\u201d said Abuza. \u201cIt\u2019s very easy to get under his skin \u2013 as we\u2019ve seen for ourselves in the presidential debates \u2013 and don\u2019t forget: this is someone who has justified military rule and like all politicians, knows how to turn on the charm.\u201d <\/p>\n

A new era in foreign policy?<\/h2>\n

As Indonesia\u2019s defense minister, Prabowo is no stranger on the world stage. <\/p>\n

While rights groups might criticize him, foreign leaders have been quick to congratulate him on his apparent victory. \u201cPrabowo will be more comfortable as a world leader than Jokowi was,\u201d said Pepinsky. \u201cHis English is stronger and he is confident moving around in international circles.\u201d <\/p>\n

But his appearance at a security summit in Singapore last year left audiences stunned when he delivered an impromptu peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, calling for a demilitarized zone that would have allowed Russia to keep its territorial gains. <\/p>\n

Indonesia has long been one of Australia\u2019s most important bilateral relationships and experts say that will not change with Prabowo in charge. <\/p>\n

\u201cAustralia will be very careful. Its relationship with Indonesia is seen as being very politicized, one that\u2019s always on spiky ground,\u201d said Jacqui Baker, a Southeast Asian politics lecturer and senior fellow at the Center for Indo-Pacific Research in Perth. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe Australian government\u00a0will work very hard to maintain its partnership and good working relations with Indonesia.\u201d <\/p>\n

Resource-rich Indonesia, with the world\u2019s largest nickel reserves, is also seen as a big prize for influence in Asia. <\/p>\n

Widodo\u2019s ambitions for the country\u2019s economy have led him to seek out good relations with both Beijing and Washington. Indonesia will continue to maintain neutrality even after Widodo leaves office. <\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect Indonesia, led by Prabowo, to continue a pragmatic approach and maintain neutrality by not aligning with China or the US to allow it to continue welcoming both Chinese and Western investment,\u201d said Laura Schwartz, Senior Southeast Asia Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft. <\/p>\n

But he \u201cshould expect\u201d international scrutiny of his reputation,\u00a0Schwartz\u00a0added. <\/p>\n

\u201cPrabowo might have successfully rehabilitated his image domestically but on a global stage, he is still perceived to be a polarizing figure and may face more scrutiny around his controversial history.\u201d <\/p>\n

Diplomatic relations with China have been especially important during Widodo\u2019s final year in office, which saw him aggressively courting lucrative Chinese foreign investment deals to speed up infrastructure development. <\/p>\n

\u201cPrabowo will continue to seek out Chinese investment like Jokowi has but whether he has the patience and consistency that Jokowi has demonstrated is unknown at this point,\u201d said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. \u201cHis past behavior record has included more instances of unpredictable changes in direction.\u201d <\/p>\n

Much of the commentary concerning Prabowo and the US has centered on a ban imposed on him back in 1998 after he was dismissed from the military over alleged human rights atrocities following the fall of the late dictator Suharto, also his former father-in-law. <\/p>\n

Security experts have pointed out several visits Prabowo has made to the US since becoming defense minister in 2019. Past sanctions on him are unlikely to present any major hurdles when he becomes president. \u201cPrabowo\u2019s ban from entering the US was waived and he has been here more than once and met with very senior officials \u2013 effectively whitewashing rights abuses in his past,\u201d\u00a0noted Abuza. <\/p>\n

\u201cWashington is going to be looking for endeavors and ambitions in Asia, particularly vis-a-vis with Beijing, and as long as it looks at Asian countries as terrain for competition with China, it will give Prabowo some latitude to make initial goodwill.\u201d <\/p>\n

That said, Prabowo \u201cwon a democratic election in a huge landslide,\u201d Slater added. <\/p>\n

\u201cSo there\u2019s going to be a lot of inclination on Washington\u2019s end to try and get along with him.\u201d <\/p>\n

Revival of military political power<\/h2>\n

For much of his decade in office, Widodo\u2019s focus had been on advancing Indonesia\u2019s economy, famously pledging it would become the world\u2019s fourth largest by 2045. Economic growth and infrastructure improved under his watch as he courted major Chinese companies and electric car giant Tesla to invest in its nickel mining industry. <\/p>\n

Prabowo, while a very wealthy and savvy businessman with assets reportedly worth more than $125 million, is first and foremost a military man and is likely to have different priorities, experts say. <\/p>\n

\u201cAs defense minister, he was committed to military modernization. As president, it is unclear how and if he will use the military to further his aims,\u201d said Chong, from the National University of Singapore. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe risk is if he seeks to re-politicize the army to serve his interests or closes an eye to corruption and abuse.\u201d <\/p>\n

His stance about territorial issues in the South China Sea is expected to remain the same, Chong added. \u201cHe has little incentive to escalate (tensions) but if he believes Indonesia is being provoked, he might be more willing to take risks as compared to Jokowi, as we\u2019ve seen with his military past.\u201d <\/p>\n

Indonesia\u2019s army, known by its initials TNI (Tentara Nasional Indonesia) is formally banned from politics but even with legal restrictions in place, generals remain a powerful\u00a0force. \u201cIn Southeast Asia, people do tend to look to militaries as being trusted and important institutions especially if there are corrupt politicians in government,\u201d said Abuza. <\/p>\n

\u201cIn Indonesia, we have seen the TNI systematically claw back authority over the years and try to reassert itself in spaces that should be the purview of civil authorities\u2026 I can definitely see Prabowo going into the ranks of retired army officers and generals for many of his advisers and cabinet officials.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cBut a bigger concern is if he accelerates the return of a dual function role for the military.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u2018Papua is going to be ground zero\u2019<\/h2>\n

On TikTok, it would seem as if Prabowo\u2019s former life\u00a0as a fearsome special forces commander never existed \u2013 the result of a successful rebranding campaign that charmed young voters and transformed him into a cuddly grandfather figure. <\/p>\n

But not all have forgotten his bloody past. \u201cWe are dealing with the possibility of our next president being implicated in major human rights violations,\u201d said Usman Hamid, executive director of Amnesty International Indonesia. \u201cA Prabowo presidency could roll back our democratic reforms and the fear is that things are going to change for the worse.\u201d <\/p>\n

Of particular concern is Papua, the restive province where TNI troops have long maintained a strong presence. Access to the country is tightly controlled and\u00a0accounts of abuse by soldiers against civilians are frequently reported. <\/p>\n

\u201cPapua is going to be ground zero for many of Prabowo\u2019s policies,\u201d said\u00a0Abuza. \u201cHe has advocated a more military response to crush Papuans and I would imagine that he will not be one to seek out political solutions.\u201d <\/p>\n

\u201cI just do not see him trying to reach negotiated settlements that would grant the region more autonomy. If anything, he would increase state control,\u201d he added. <\/p>\n

A Prabowo presidency risks a dangerous repeat of the late Suharto\u2019s authoritarian regime, said Indonesian human rights lawyer Veronica Koman who currently lives in exile in Australia. <\/p>\n

\u201cAnd seeing Prabowo\u2019s track record in East Timor, this can\u2019t be underestimated.\u201d <\/p>\n\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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