{"id":15784,"date":"2024-02-20T07:46:34","date_gmt":"2024-02-20T07:46:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/20\/ukraines-defeat-at-avdiivka-darkens-the-mood-in-the-west\/"},"modified":"2024-02-20T07:46:34","modified_gmt":"2024-02-20T07:46:34","slug":"ukraines-defeat-at-avdiivka-darkens-the-mood-in-the-west","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/20\/ukraines-defeat-at-avdiivka-darkens-the-mood-in-the-west\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine\u2019s defeat at Avdiivka darkens the mood in the West"},"content":{"rendered":"
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It is a pivotal moment, where both Russian advances and\u00a0Western\u00a0atrophy threaten to transform the biggest land war in Europe since the\u00a01940s. <\/p>\n

Traveling from the Munich Security Conference towards Ukraine\u2019s frontlines, the polite frustration and manicured pleas of\u00a0Western\u00a0leaders and\u00a0Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky\u00a0feel yet more desperate. The warnings that Ukraine might suffer setbacks on the frontline if\u00a0the United States\u00a0Congress continued to hold up a $60 billion aid package have now curdled into a bitter, brutal reality. <\/p>\n

The pledges\u00a0and\u00a0rhetoric of Munich\u2019s suits and limousines have so far amounted to little; in the wait, or abyss, ahead, Ukraine is losing people and land. It is all very real, very immediate and stark.\u00a0After months of stalemate, the possibility of sweeping changes on the frontlines is quite real. <\/p>\n

The horrific death of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny meant the brutality of the Putin regime was amplified and crystal-clear for European leaders who had feared the gathering\u00a0would be dogged by doubts over a\u00a0future\u00a0Trump presidency\u2019s adherence to the NATO alliance. Latvia\u2019s president spoke of \u201cmurder,\u201d Germany\u2019s defense minister of how the death showed Russia was \u201cwilling and able to provoke\u201d the West. Ukraine reasoned it was clear proof Putin was too irrational a man to negotiate with. <\/p>\n

Yet still, the conference \u2013 often a talking shop, fixated on entourages and colored-passes over concrete results \u2013 ended without major progress. US President Joe Biden had said in 2021 that Navalny\u2019s death would lead to \u201cdevastating consequences\u201d for Russia. Yet the White House\u2019s toolkit has been somewhat emptied by the 2022 invasion and as of Monday morning \u2013 72 hours after Navalny\u2019s passing was announced \u2013 no measures have been announced. Indeed, Vice President Kamala Harris could only berate the \u201cpolitical gamesmanship\u201d of a Republican-led Congress that has just taken two weeks off. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Zelensky \u2013 taking the stage in Munich right after Ukraine announced its withdrawal from the significant eastern frontline town of Avdiivka on Saturday \u2013 found the climate of defeat in Ukraine, and savagery in Russia, did almost nothing to bring the urgently needed US billions closer. <\/p>\n

In\u00a0and\u00a0of itself, the Ukrainian defeat Avdiivka\u00a0does\u00a0not herald a sea change in\u00a0Kyiv\u2019s\u00a0fortunes. It is only of moderate strategic importance. But Ukraine held it for a decade, since Russia\u2019s first invasion in 2014 pushed into the\u00a0Donbas\u00a0region. Ukraine announced a voluntary withdrawal after months of immense Russian pressure, a choice perhaps fomented by some political realities. The\u00a0defense\u00a0of Bakhmut \u2014 another town on the eastern front\u00a0that\u00a0Moscow was willing to squander thousands of lives to take last year \u2014 did, critics of Ukrainian policy argue, cost Kyiv resources it would have better devoted to its counteroffensive in the south last summer. <\/p>\n

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That counteroffensive failed, and the reshuffle of Ukraine\u2019s top brass \u2014 in which the architect of the failed summer push, General\u00a0Valerii Zaluzhnyi, was replaced by his top deputy Oleksandr Syrsky \u2014 comes at both the worst and best time, depending on who you are talking to. The animosity between Zelensky and his military chief had become a distraction to the war effort, and new ideas were clearly needed. <\/p>\n

Yet Syrsky must replace a near iconic commander who is deeply popular with troops and civilians, at a time when Ukraine is hobbled in all directions. He does not have a moment to take stock or reassess. Some analysis has seen Syrsky\u2019s opening act of withdrawing from Avdiivka as a bid to\u00a0show he is a more\u00a0protective custodian of troops\u2019 lives than\u00a0his hard man reputation would suggest. <\/p>\n

Kyiv is now dealing with Russian surges on many fronts. After Avdiivka, they may attempt to sweep up other surrounding villages. Yet the fall of this railway hub\u00a0frees up Kremlin units and air power to fight elsewhere. That could be Vulehdar to the south. To the west, one of the main and incremental gains of the southern counteroffensive \u2014 Robotyne, where hundreds died in pitched battles for a tiny village \u2014 is under threat. Russian bloggers have suggested a full assault on its eastern flank. Ukrainian officials insist they have been repelled. There is pressure near Kupiansk, on the edges of Kharkiv, and\u00a0there\u00a0also could be another Russian surge around Bakhmut. <\/p>\n

The extent of Russia\u2019s capabilities and intent is unclear at the moment, and it is important to remember the mess and collapse they were in a year ago was under the same president and\u00a0defense\u00a0minister. But they are badly in need of demonstrating a win ahead of Putin\u2019s rubber-stamp re-election as president just under a month from now. Their military-industrial complex appears to be humming in producing war materiel, and the Kremlin\u2019s coffers have never been fuller. <\/p>\n

It would be a mistake to think Putin \u2013 with his state apparatus and economy now fully retooled for indefinite conflict \u2013 has curbed his ambitions. He even spoke about Poland, a NATO member, as an errant vassal in his\u00a0recent\u00a0interview with Tucker Carlson. How far he is willing to go remains unclear, but\u00a0the fact that the answer to the question is unknown\u00a0should be cause for concern. <\/p>\n

The key asset of Russia\u2019s forces now is persistence\u00a0\u2013 dogged and callous.\u00a0Moscow has something Kyiv lacks, and that is a constant stream of recruits \u2014 conscripts, mercenaries, prisoners \u2014 for the frontlines, which it is willing to waste for minor objectives, with\u00a0unimaginative frontal assaults, and can replenish at a staggering rate. <\/p>\n

Conversely, Ukraine lacks manpower and is stalling on a decision to widen the draft to include 25- and 26-year-olds.\u00a0Zaluzhnyi\u00a0wanted another 500,000 men, and that has yet to happen. Ammunition is lacking, and so on imperilled frontlines, Ukraine must ration shells, while Moscow\u2019s forces can even rely on top-ups from as far away as North Korea to keep their artillery stocked. Western aid, replenished by the European Union last month, is still\u00a0meager\u00a0because of Republican dysfunction in Congress. The House has gone on a two-week break; that fortnight might see changes on the frontlines\u00a0that\u00a0Ukraine would not have dreamed of just\u00a0six\u00a0months ago. <\/p>\n

The impact of Congress\u2019s indecision is already calamitous. The belief \u2014 perhaps held by\u00a0some\u00a0uninformed\u00a0Republicans \u2014 that if Ukraine is ignored enough, Putin will somehow stop and just go away, has already been exposed as delusional in the last weeks alone. <\/p>\n

The Kremlin will not stop. Ukraine will continue to weaken without Western aid in its billions. The war will not go away. And the decisions the West will face in the coming months are not over whether they are willing to continue with the paltry aid they are currently prevaricating over. Instead they may face larger existential questions about providing a lot more help, very urgently, to stop Ukraine\u2019s war becoming Europe\u2019s. <\/p>\n\n

This post appeared first on cnn.com<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is a pivotal moment, where both Russian advances and\u00a0Western\u00a0atrophy threaten to transform the biggest land war in Europe since the\u00a01940s. Traveling from the Munich Security Conference towards Ukraine\u2019s frontlines, the polite frustration and manicured pleas of\u00a0Western\u00a0leaders and\u00a0Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky\u00a0feel yet more desperate. The warnings that Ukraine might suffer setbacks on the frontline if\u00a0the <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":15785,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-15784","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15784"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15784\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15785"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}