{"id":17939,"date":"2024-04-14T12:46:51","date_gmt":"2024-04-14T12:46:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/14\/iran-vs-israel-how-potential-conflict-could-look-according-to-experts-already-at-war\/"},"modified":"2024-04-14T12:46:51","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T12:46:51","slug":"iran-vs-israel-how-potential-conflict-could-look-according-to-experts-already-at-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/14\/iran-vs-israel-how-potential-conflict-could-look-according-to-experts-already-at-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran vs Israel: How potential conflict could look according to experts: \u2018Already at war\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

War between Iran and Israel would be to no one\u2019s benefit in the region as it would likely end up in a pitched battle that regional forces would keep away from, experts told Fox News Digital.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018Frankly, none of the Arab states would want to take either side in this conflict,\u2019 Matt McInnis, senior fellow for the Institute for the Study of War, explained. \u2018They may inevitably be drawn into it, and I think that\u2019s one of the things that Iran is very worried about.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u2018[Iran is] not quite sure if Israel\u2019s efforts over the last few years to increase diplomatic and security relationships with states like Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and others are sufficient to keep these states out of a larger conflict,\u2019 McInnis added.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018Our bases and others in those countries, in a larger and larger conflict as part of our support and defense of Israel is obviously very complicated,\u2019 McInnis explained. \u2018I think that on the Iranian side, certainly the Syrians will side with them, but I don\u2019t know what material support that provides aside from potentially allowing Iran to use Syrian territory for attacks.\u2019<\/p>\n

Tehran has continued to threaten a response against Israel for the attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members, including two generals.<\/p>\n

U.S. CENTCOM Gen. Michael Kurilla has been in Israel, where he met with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant on Friday to assess military preparedness, moving up his plans due to the threats from Iran, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder confirmed during a press conference Thursday.<\/p>\n

U.S. Nation Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby on Friday told reporters that the U.S. remains in \u2018constant communication\u2019 with Israeli counterparts to make sure they are ready for attack but refused to \u2018armchair quarterback \u2026 in a public way in terms of the conversations we\u2019re having or what we\u2019re seeing in the intelligence picture.\u2019<\/p>\n

Jonathan Conricus, a former spokesman for the IDF and now a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) commented on what he said was the media hype and tension and even a \u2018minor panic\u2019 in Israel over\u00a0the so-called Iranian retaliation against Israel after the Damascus attack last week.<\/p>\n

Speaking on FDD\u2019s Morning Brief podcast, he said that while Iran has a lot of options, he said he had \u2018quite solid faith in Iranian strategic patience.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u2018They are disciplined, they are long-term thinkers, they do not take rash decisions based on emotions \u2026 even though the rhetoric is high,\u2019 Conricus said.<\/p>\n

\u2018I know that it wouldn\u2019t be smart for Iran to attack Israel, because then the distraction in Gaza and Lebanon will become a forgotten issue, and everything will focus on Iran, on its hostile and negative activities in the Middle East, and they themselves will be front and center of Israeli and perhaps U.S. attention, and the Iranians do not want that,\u2019 he added. \u2018They don\u2019t want it because it will put focus on their nuclear plans and because it will take pressure off Israel from its fighting in Gaza and Lebanon.\u2019<\/p>\n

During an appearance on Friday\u2019s episode of \u2018Fox & Friends,\u2019 Gen. Jack Keane of the Institute for the Study of War (IFSW) said an attack will happen at some point, because Iran \u2018cannot avoid the international publicity surrounding the taking down of the IRGC headquarters in Syria,\u2019 saying it was \u2018just a reality\u2019 but adding that Iran will likely pursue a \u2018measured response\u2019 and does not really want escalation.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Keane suggested that the best way to handle Iran was to destroy its IRGC assets in Iran, because \u2018Iran does not want to escalate,\u2019 claiming Iran has \u2018a weak air force \u2026 a weak navy\u2019 and \u2018not particularly well trained or \u2026 well equipped\u2019 troops \u2013 instead, he argued that Iran relies heavily on its drone and missile arsenal.<\/p>\n

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\u2018Iran knows that war with them would destroy their regime economically, and they likely lose it,\u2019 Keane insisted. \u2018The leverage has always been on the side of Israel, the United States and the West, but we absolutely refuse to use it.\u2019<\/p>\n

McInnis agreed with Keane\u2019s assessment, but he argued that it largely depended on what shape the conflict would take. His estimation determined that in small-scale personnel-driven engagements, Iran could find some gains due to the integration of IRGC personnel with proxy forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018If we got to that point, I think some of those smaller scale operations, on the ground, I think the Iranians are in better shape than they would have been a couple of decades ago,\u2019 McInnis said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018But it is true for a long, all-out war, which I don\u2019t really foresee \u2026 I guess that\u2019s a fair critique,\u2019 he continued. \u2018They have certainly improved in their ability to coordinate very sophisticated drone cruise and ballistic missile actions, and we look at the classic one in Saudi Arabia in 2019, [which] was the kind of beginning of that period where we have these far more sophisticated capabilities combined with what Lebanese Hezbollah could do.\u2019\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018I think both the Iranians and the Israelis are most concerned about if this becomes a ground war, similar or in some ways inspired by the October 7th Hamas attack, where it\u2019s not just missiles and drones but combined with ground operations,\u2019 he explained.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018That\u2019s something that, I think in particular, the Israelis and the Iranians are worried we\u2019re going to end up in that type of conflict in southern Lebanon or even in northern Israel struggling to go on as another as a kind of a flashpoint,\u2019 he added. \u2018I think that\u2019s where the capabilities of Iran\u2019s axis of resistance, along with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, could still be fairly serious to Israel\u2019s security.\u2019<\/p>\n

Bill Roggio, founder and editor of the \u2018The Long War Journal,\u2019 stressed Iran\u2019s reliance on proxy groups to wage war and keep enough distance to maintain something of a response without the rampant escalation that would accompany direct response.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u2018I think one of the things that\u2019s kind of misunderstood is that Iran and Israel are already at war, it\u2019s just Iran is doing it via its proxies. Israel is under attack already by the Iranian proxies \u2013 but they could be escalating, right?\u2019 Roggio said. \u2018So, at the bare minimum, these are Iran\u2019s closest allies in the region, and they do wield significant power: Lebanon, the proxy, particularly in Iraq, essentially running things.\u2019<\/p>\n

\u2018The Saudis have indicated that they really don\u2019t want to be a frontline state,\u2019 Roggio added. \u2018They\u2019ve experienced Iranian attacks with drones, and, given Israel\u2019s position in Gaza, I don\u2019t expect the Egyptians or any other Arab country to come to the Israeli side.\u2019<\/p>\n

Roggio also noted that Russia and China have a vested political and diplomatic interest in Iran, which they last year invited to join the BRICS economic bloc. Highlighting the \u2018tightened\u2019 bonds between the three countries, he argued that Iran and China could provide support that aimed to keep the conflict \u2018hot\u2019 but was unclear how that might happen.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

War between Iran and Israel would be to no one\u2019s benefit in the region as it would likely end up in a pitched battle that regional forces would keep away from, experts told Fox News Digital.\u00a0 \u2018Frankly, none of the Arab states would want to take either side in this conflict,\u2019 Matt McInnis, senior fellow <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":17940,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-17939","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-politics"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17939"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17939\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/shareperformanceinsight.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}